Sam Houseworth’s Ohio High School Football Projection Index – After Week 4

(9-15-25) For this year’s iteration of the Projection Index, we’ve improved access to out-of-state contests to give a clearer, more consistent rating throughout the season. While this won’t impact many west-central Ohio teams, it will provide better accuracy for programs in Toledo and southeastern Ohio that play a large portion of their schedules against Michigan and West Virginia schools.

But enough about the methodology that only the nerdiest of nerds care about—here are the statewide rankings after Week 4.

Division I

Columbus-area football returned to relevancy last season as Olentangy Liberty took down three-time defending state champion St. Edward and Archbishop Moeller en route to its first state championship. In 2025, the 614 is continuing its climb with Olentangy Orange putting the state on notice. After being crowned co-champions of the Ohio Capital Central, the Pioneers have hit the ground running, knocking off Olentangy and Gahanna Lincoln in consecutive weeks.

Division II

There’s a logjam at the top of Division II, with the top five teams combining for a record of 19-1. The lone blemish belongs to Avon, which fell to Spruce Creek (Florida) in a game played more than 1,000 miles from home. Beyond the top five, perennial contenders Hoban, Massillon, Big Walnut, and Trotwood all look poised for deep postseason runs.

Division III

Defending champion and preseason No. 1 Bishop Watterson has shown it’s the team to beat again in 2025. The Eagles opened with wins over Big Walnut and Delaware’s defending 3A champion Middletown before rolling past Westerville North and Columbian with running clocks. Elsewhere, Wapakoneta has shifted from the gauntlet of Region 12 up north to a more winnable Region 10, where Toledo Central Catholic is in a rebuilding year.

Division IV

Does anyone know what’s going to happen in Ohio’s middle division? I don’t. Taft and Shelby look like early co-favorites, both off to dominant starts. Defending champ Indian Valley is proving 2024 was no fluke, while Perkins—the preseason favorite—has stumbled to a 1-3 start. Bath, meanwhile, has surged into the top 15 as coach Frank Russell engineers one of the state’s most impressive turnarounds for a program that was winless just two years ago.

Division V

As good as Ironton was last season, the Fighting Tigers may be even better in 2025. They’ve averaged a 40-point margin of victory against a mostly out-of-state slate. Liberty Center, meanwhile, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2021. For a small northwest Ohio school, a non-conference test against a MAC team could be a great litmus test. Don’t overlook Liberty-Benton either—the Eagles have triggered the running clock in all four of their wins so far.

Division VI

Yes, Anna just beat Coldwater last week. If you want to argue that the Rockets belong at No. 2—or even No. 1—go ahead. The bottom line: everyone knows these two programs are destined to collide again in the postseason, unless Tri-Village has something to say about it. And don’t forget about Kirtland, which still holds the top spot after opening the year with a 30-7 win over Pennsylvania 2A runner-up Central Clarion.

Division VII

The MAC continues its dominance with the top four spots in Division VII, while 2-2 Fort Recovery sits just outside the top 15. Beyond western Ohio, Hillsdale has rebounded nicely from its 2024 state runner-up finish, opening 4-0 with wins over Black River, Lucas, and Loudonville. And keep an eye on Lima Central Catholic, which should be favored to win Region 26 this postseason.