Yesterday, in my girls’ volleyball projections, I pointed out that there can sometimes be a disconnect between how strong a team looks in predictive metrics and how impressive its season has actually been.

In simpler terms, some teams are really good at finding ways to win. Others are really good at finding ways to lose.

With seven weeks of football behind us, let’s look at the teams whose résumés are outperforming their power ratings.

And yes, the Division III selection is pretty damn obvious.

DIVISION I – GAHANNA LINCOLN

I haven’t written much about Gahanna Lincoln since Diore Hubbard broke just about every school rushing record imaginable on his way to becoming a Mr. Football finalist in 2022.

Four years later, the Lions are undefeated and just capped off their biggest win of the season with a 35-3 dismantling of New Albany.

The defense has been outstanding. Gahanna Lincoln has allowed double-digit points only once all season, and it took Olentangy Liberty an overtime period just to reach 13.

Junior Taiwan Johnson has been living in opposing backfields with 9½ tackles for loss, while Mark Thorpe III and Kaiden Farris have three interceptions apiece.

The Lions travel to Westerville Central this Friday to face a team coming off a 41-point performance in a win over Grove City.

DIVISION II – OREGON CLAY

In a division full of giants, undefeated Oregon Clay is doing everything it can to stand alongside the Wattersons, Massillons and Big Walnuts of the world.

The problem is that three of Clay’s marquee opponents have picked inconvenient seasons to take a step backward.

Wapakoneta, which Clay defeated in the opener, is only one game above .500 after owning the Western Buckeye League for much of the 2020s. Liberty-Benton already has as many losses this season as it had in the previous four regular seasons combined. And Findlay’s rebuild from last year appears to need another season.

As a result, Clay sits only 17th in the Division II power ratings despite being 7-0. The résumé rating is more impressed, ranking the Eagles 11th.

Both numbers have a chance to improve quickly. Clay travels to Perrysburg and Whitmer over the next two weeks.

DIVISION III – CELINA

Who else could it be?

The Bulldogs finally cracked the Top 10 in the power ratings after a 45-21 win at Elida on Friday.

Celina’s predictive rating has lagged behind its on-field success all season, largely because the Bulldogs won their first three games by a combined six points.

Since then, however, the margin has started catching up with the record.

Celina has scored at least 40 points in three of its past four games and has won those four contests by an average of 23.8 points.

The résumé rating has been convinced for a while. Celina sits No. 2 in Division III by that measure.

The Bulldogs travel to No. 6 (D-IV) Ottawa-Glandorf on Oct. 16 in a game that, if both teams continue winning, should decide the outright Western Buckeye League championship.

DIVISION IV – WYOMING

Winning is certainly nothing foreign to Wyoming.

Aaron Hancock’s program has won at least nine regular-season games in every full season over the past 10 years, with the lone exception being a 6-0 finish during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. The bigger question around the Cowboys usually isn’t whether they will win. It’s how deep into November they can go.

The postseason results have varied. Wyoming won a state championship in 2018, but the past two seasons have ended in the second round.

The 2026 Cowboys are 7-0 again. Their résumé ranks sixth in Division IV, even though the power rating has them only 12th.

Before anyone starts thinking about November, though, there is still business to handle in the Cincinnati Hills League.

Undefeated Deer Park is waiting in Week 10 with a chance to dethrone the longtime league power.

DIVISION V – GIRARD

Region 17 currently has five undefeated teams.

Perry, Girard, Garrettsville Garfield, Barnesville and Martins Ferry are all sitting at 7-0.

Then there is Cardinal Mooney, casually hanging around at 4-3 with one of the toughest schedules in Division V.

Girard may be the most interesting case of the bunch.

The résumé rating loves the Indians because they handed Garaway and South Range their only losses of the season. The power rating is more skeptical because both were nail-biters, while Girard’s other five victories came against teams with a combined record of 7-24.

That leaves Girard ninth in the power rankings but No. 1 in the résumé rankings.

If the Indians can get through Friday’s trip to Poland Seminary undefeated, a 10-0 regular season starts looking very realistic.

DIVISION VI – COLUMBIA

Columbia has put the Lorain County Conference on notice.

If you cannot stop the run, you cannot stop the Raiders.

Columbia averages just four pass attempts per game compared with 31.3 rushing attempts.

This is small-school football in its purest form.

And it is working.

Junior Xavier Hendon has rushed for 1,538 yards — nearly 220 per game — while the Raiders as a team average an absurd 375.4 rushing yards per contest.

Columbia is only 13th in the Division VI power ratings, but its 7-0 start has earned the Raiders the No. 5 résumé in the division.

Friday brings the biggest conference test yet when undefeated Columbia hosts Keystone in a battle of teams perfect in Lorain County Conference play.

DIVISION VII – MINSTER

There aren’t many teams I would go out of my way to praise immediately after a loss.

Minster is one of them.

The Wildcats haven’t received much love from the power ratings all season. Even after winning at New Bremen in Week 3, Minster remained behind the Cardinals.

Since then, the Wildcats have beaten No. 6 (D-V) Coldwater 24-21 and suffered their only loss in a 14-13 heartbreaker against Anna.

That résumé is why Minster ranks second in Division VII by accomplishment despite sitting sixth in the predictive ratings.

I still believe the Wildcats are one of a handful of teams capable of making Marion Local work for four quarters in November.

Of course, Minster may have to survive a revenge-fueled rematch with cross-county rival New Bremen before it ever gets that opportunity.

Related;

Week 7 Joe Eitel Computer Rankings For The Stateline Area -10-4-26

Sam Houseworth’s Ohio High School GIRLS VOLLEYBALL Projection Index – Oct. 5