(10-26-26) 336 teams. Seven state titles.
What an incredible regular season we have seen in Ohio.
Now comes the race to Canton, and what stands out entering the postseason is just how wide open some divisions appear compared with years past.
Without further delay, let’s run through all seven divisions, identify some early-round games worth watching, find the most interesting region in each division and make a pick to win the state championship.
DIVISION I
The bottom half of Region 1 looks wide open among Austintown-Fitch, Mentor, Strongsville and Canton McKinley.
Fitch, ranked sixth in the final Projection Index, has been an offensive juggernaut, scoring at least 40 points in six of its seven wins. The question is how the Falcons will respond to postseason competition after not facing a playoff qualifier since a 42-10 win over Riverside in Week 2.
The most exciting region is obviously Cincinnati-based Region 4.
Five of the top seven teams in the final Projection Index reside there: Moeller, Princeton, Lakota West, Elder and St. Xavier. My projections give Region 4 a better than 50-50 chance of producing the eventual Division I state champion.
But that gauntlet is exactly why I cannot bring myself to pick a Cincinnati team.
My choice is St. Edward.
The Eagles finished 9-1 and went to top-ranked Moeller in Week 9, coming home with a 28-17 victory. One of their biggest weapons is UConn commit Joe Moore at tight end. Even the best opponents have struggled to contain him, as Moore finished the regular season with 35 catches for 559 yards and eight touchdowns.
STATE CHAMPION: ST. EDWARD
DIVISION II
To begin October, Troy jumped out to a big lead against Butler and eventually cruised to a 45-31 home victory.
Now the Miami Valley League rivals get to do it again.
Troy will be favored in Friday’s first-round rematch, with the winner earning a trip to 9-1 Lima Senior, which dominated the Toledo City League this season.
For the most interesting region, I’m going with Region 6 simply because Toledo Central Catholic and Avon are legitimate state-title contenders. They appear headed toward a regional-final collision, but Olmsted Falls and Clay are both capable of throwing a wrench into those plans.
Ultimately, though, Bishop Watterson is the Division II favorite, and it isn’t difficult to understand why.
In the deepest division in Ohio, the two-time defending Division III champions enter the postseason as favorites to win a third consecutive state title — this time after moving up a division.
If the Eagles get their wings clipped, however, the field opens considerably. Anderson, Walsh Jesuit, Toledo Central Catholic, Massillon, Avon and Big Walnut all have legitimate paths to Canton.
STATE CHAMPION: BISHOP WATTERSON
DIVISION III
It would have been easy to pick a potential St. Marys-Cloverleaf second-round matchup as the game to watch.
And assuming the Roughriders get past Maumee in the opening round, it absolutely will be.
But I’m going with Tri-Valley at Sheridan on Friday night because that game could have consequences well beyond Week 11.
The teams met in Week 9, with Tri-Valley earning a 38-21 home victory. Two weeks later, they meet again in Thornville. The winner gets a favorable second-round matchup at Columbus East and could become a serious problem for Licking Valley in the regional semifinals.
Region 10 brings plenty of Western Buckeye League flavor.
Celina enters as a slight favorite, with Wapakoneta right behind. The Bulldogs beat the Redskins 7-6 in Week 2. Ontario, Columbian and St. Marys are also threats in a geographically enormous region stretching from northeast Ohio toward the Indiana state line.
As for the state championship, remember Troy and Butler from the Division II section?
Tippecanoe dismantled both of them.
The Red Devils have been nearly unstoppable since their season-opening loss to Bellbrook. During their current nine-game winning streak, Tippecanoe has allowed just 20 points.
Steubenville, defending champion Glenville, undefeated Bellbrook and Celina are all close enough to make this interesting.
But I’m riding with the Red Devils.
STATE CHAMPION: TIPPECANOE
DIVISION IV
If you live in southwest Ohio, you have no shortage of competitive football with serious playoff implications Friday night.
Kenton Ridge at Oakwood, Clinton-Massie at Urbana and New Richmond at Wilmington all have the potential to come down to the final possession.
Region 15 narrowly gets my vote over Region 14 as the most interesting region.
Undefeated Indian Valley has been consistently excellent all season, and the boys from Gnadenhutten get the added benefit of avoiding West Holmes or New Lexington until the regional final.
Even beyond those three, Claymont, Johnstown and West Muskingum are capable of creating early-round chaos.
As for picking the state champion?
Good luck.
Division IV may be the most wide-open field in Ohio.
I’m giving Shelby the narrow edge over London and Rocky River. But if I’m being fair, I can absolutely envision Perkins upsetting the favorite early and riding that momentum all the way to Canton.
Indian Valley, West Branch and Ottawa-Glandorf deserve to be in the conversation as well.
Ask me again in three weeks and I may regret this.
STATE CHAMPION: SHELBY
DIVISION V
Yes, 8-vs.-9 games are supposed to be competitive.
So nobody should be surprised if North Union and Vermilion turn Friday night into a back-and-forth fight.
What would be a mistake is assuming the winner becomes a sacrificial lamb for top-seeded Keystone in Round 2.
North Union and Keystone both finished inside the Top 15 of the final Projection Index. If North Union survives Friday, that second-round matchup could be one of the best games in the region.
Speaking of regions, Region 20 does not appear to contain a serious state-title favorite.
The regional championship trophy, fortunately, does not care.
Top-seeded Graham Local is the favorite, but hardly an overwhelming one. Bishop Fenwick, Williamsburg, Waynesville and Miami East are all waiting in the wings if the Falcons stumble.
At the state level, Division V looks increasingly like a two-horse race.
Ironton and Perry — two programs with state championships in the past three seasons — could not be much closer.
I give Ironton the slight edge largely because the Fighting Tigers do not have to survive a brutal Region 17 featuring Cardinal Mooney, Girard and Barnesville.
The Region 18 champion — whether Archbold, Triway, Bluffton or Coldwater — has an outside chance to win the whole thing.
But the Las Vegas Raiders also have an outside chance to win the Super Bowl.
Give me Ironton.
STATE CHAMPION: IRONTON
DIVISION VI
Northwest Ohio is loaded with competitive first-round games.
Seneca East at Delta might be the least competitive of the bunch, and even there, the underdog Tigers have roughly a one-in-six chance of advancing.
Paulding at Allen East, Patrick Henry at Western Reserve and Fairview at Carey could all become excellent football games.
Unfortunately for everyone involved, the entire region eventually appears to run through Liberty Center.
Region 23 gets my vote as the most exciting region in Division VI.
Half of the field has a legitimate chance of reaching the state semifinals. Despite having to play in the opening round, Garaway enters as the slightest of regional favorites, barely ahead of West Jefferson and Nelsonville-York.
Monroe Central, Waterford and Newcomerstown are hardly out of the picture either.
When it comes to the state championship, however, Division VI becomes considerably less mysterious.
Liberty Center is a massive favorite to win back-to-back state championships for the first time in school history.
South Range and St. Henry are the two teams I trust most to give the Tigers a serious fight. Behind them sit dangerous programs such as Kirtland and Lima Central Catholic.
But outside of Marion Local in Division VII, Liberty Center may be the safest championship pick in the entire postseason.
STATE CHAMPION: LIBERTY CENTER
DIVISION VII
The Monroeville-Dalton-Cuyahoga Heights portion of Region 25 might be the most unpredictable first-and-second-round sequence in the state.
Monroeville and Dalton appear almost evenly matched Friday night. Even better, I would give the winner a slight edge over second-seeded Cuyahoga Heights in Round 2.
Region 26 has two clear favorites and another pair of teams more than capable of spoiling the party.
Leipsic and Hopewell-Loudon have all the ingredients for an outstanding regional final.
The problem is that McComb and Mohawk are both capable of making sure that matchup never happens.
And then there is Marion Local.
The Flyers’ streak of four consecutive state championships is over.
In Maria Stein, I suppose that means it is time to start another one.
The biggest wild card is Danville.
The Blue Devils reached a running clock in nine of their 10 regular-season victories and have looked every bit like a state-title contender. Comparing them directly with Marion Local, however, remains difficult.
Danville’s strength of schedule ranks only 17th in Division VII.
Marion Local played the toughest schedule in the division.
That difference makes declaring Danville the better team borderline foolish, no matter how dominant the Blue Devils have looked.
Danville absolutely has the talent to reach Canton.
But until somebody proves otherwise, Division VII still belongs to Maria Stein.
STATE CHAMPION: MARION LOCAL
