By Samuel Housworth
(8-27-19) Debuting the OHSAA Football Projection Index for the 2019 season, a project that has been months, if not a full year, in the making. As a longtime critic of other computer rankings and AP polls, I figured it was time to put that strong background in statistics and athletics to the test and offer high school football fans a real algorithm that measures how good teams are moving forward.
One of the most important aspects of this algorithm is it measures how good a team is in the coming weeks and is not a measure of how good of a season they have had up to that point. To me, the OHSAA computer ratings are the only ratings that matter when talking about how good a team has done as that is the one and only metric used for postseason inclusion.
The Rating is on a scale of 0-100 and reflects a team’s winning percentage if they were to play every other team in the state of Ohio.
For example, you will see that my alma mater, Celina, has a rating of 66.76. That means, that if they played the other 713 high school football teams in the state of Ohio, they would be expected to win 66.76% of their games.
Expected Wins is exactly what it says it is, the number of wins the computer expects them to accumulate over the course of the season, given the schedule they have in place.
And after that is the odds of that team making the OHSAA playoffs, earning a first round home game, and earning the #1 seed, based on thousands of regular season simulations.
Finally, if you want to see teams outside the top 25 per region, the link below is a handy spreadsheet where teams are separated by division, region, and conference, as well as a look forward to Week 1 of the high school football season.
Best of luck to everybody’s teams and the 40,000 student-athletes playing football in Ohio this fall!
Houseworth’s OHSAA Football Projection – Complete Index LINK: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iVyGL3QZtEvtj3AZP15ifemdnVmJqXbJjRG8wsRdFAE/edit?usp=drivesdk
Finding all of the conferences and their members for football was a nightmare and is prone to errors. If you see any mistakes, don’t hesitate to let me know.
Many bigger schools play as many as 4 or 5 out of state games vs. teams I don’t have ratings for. In those cases, they were treated as 50-50 games, hence why St Ignatius, St X, and Elder have such low Expected Wins.
Midwest Athletic Conference
Western Buckeye League