sam house rankings

story by Samuel Houseworth

Complete OHSAA HS FB Projections

(10-7-19) –After doing the statistical version of a “reality check” based on how accurate the Projection Index had been over the first half of the season, I’ve made some adjustments to how it factors in current season results. In doing so, the team ratings and Upcoming Games tab should be more accurate moving forward. Did you not see the Upcoming Games tab? It’s been in the link at the bottom of these updates each and every week.

D-I: Region 4 is an absolute mess at the moment, making each and every remaining game in the Greater Miami Conference a must-win. There are only 6 teams in Region 4 with a winning record, which means that 2 of the several 3-3 teams will get into the playoffs. Heck, even 2-4 West Clermont isn’t out of the picture yet.

D-II: It’s not too early to say that the Federal League matchup of Hoover at Lake is practically a play-in game for the playoffs. For both schools, their remaining schedules are a mix of high-caliber opponents and empty wins. To get into the top 8 and knock down a bid thief, a win on Friday is a must.

D-III: The Kenston Blue Bombers get their toughest challenge to date when they go on the road to face the Chardon Hilltoppers. The Hilltoppers are barely above 50-50 to make the postseason and while they don’t need this home victory to make it to the playoffs, it would almost guarantee them a spot if they do.

D-IV: The game of the week in the WBL is clearly Kenton at Van Wert. Both teams are in the top 10 in D-IV in the Projection Index, but it’s likely one will be left out of the postseason, come November. If Kenton loses, they will still have opportunities for points against Shawnee and O-G. The same can’t be said for Van Wert though.

D-V: Greenon High School in Springfield, Ohio opened in 1955. The Knights are currently 4-2, sit in 9th in the OHSAA Computer Ratings in Region 20, are favored to beat rival Madison-Plains on Friday, and currently have a 42% chance of making the postseason. They have never been the OHSAA Playoffs in their 60+ year history.

D-VI: Gibsonburg is in an unenviable position at the moment. They are undefeated and in 9th in the OHSAA Computer Ratings. And things could play out in such a way that the Golden Bears go 10-0 and miss out on the postseason. Having a pitifully weak schedule and sharing a region with 56 MAC teams both work against a team that. Regardless, going a perfect 10-0 is a must.

D-VII: The NWCC features the most important game in the state as far as small school playoff scenarios go. Lehman Catholic at Hardin Northern could not only decide who will challenge Lima Perry for the conference title. But it could be a make-or-break game for both teams’ playoff chances.

Midwest Athletic Conference

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Western Buckeye League

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