By Samuel Houseworth
(9-16-19) It’s time to stop ignoring Westerville Central, who is 3-0, outscoring their opponents 195-13, and en route to their first winning season since 2015. The Warhawks began the season ranked 36th out of 72 D-I schools. They have since soared to #10 in D-I. While their game at Pickerington North this Friday won’t be a cake walk, their real test on the schedule comes in Week 6 when they host fellow undefeated Olentangy Liberty.
Another team who has made impressive strides is D-II’s Turpin Spartans down in Cincinnati. With only an 18% chance of making the playoffs in the preseason rankings, the Spartans have handed Lakota East and Troy their only losses so far and are the favorites to earn the #1 seed in Region 8.
Trotwood-Madison has jumped back up to #2 in D-III, just like they were when the season started. Their projection of 5.9 wins, thanks to a schedule that includes 8 D-I teams, makes them a playoff bubble team.
There are several key games this coming week that will create shock waves across D-IV. First, Van Wert continues their brutal early season schedule as they heads to St. Mary’s to face a Roughriders team that has been slow out of the gate. Up north, Bellevue puts their undefeated record on the line at Clear Fork. Then out east, Struthers finds themselves in a must-win scenario as they host Hubbard in Northeast 8 action.
Saying in the Northeast 8, D-V’s South Range has turned heads in the northeast with back-to-back dominant wins over Columbiana Crestview and Canton Central Catholic. Their contest at Poland will provide a good measuring stick for both teams.
With no disrespect intended to Coldwater and Minster, the focus of D-VI can actually turn away from the MAC for one week. Two of the best teams in the division who aren’t in the MAC square off as Lima Central Catholic has a 2-1/2 hour drive to Mogadore on Saturday in what will be a barn burner.
But back to the MAC, as there’s only one bubble team in the conference: D-VII’s New Bremen Cardinals. Their playoff lives will depend on winning at least one, if not both, of their next two contests: hosting Fort Recovery and at St. Henry the following week.
Midwest Athletic Conference
Western Buckeye League
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Kenston, Kirtland and Perry all ranked too low. Kirtland would destroy Marion Local, as would Perry. Kenston is one of the best teams in the state. Top 15 for sure
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Quick Question on elasticity of the rankings. Marion Local is currently ranked 10 percentage points Bishop Watterson who beat them week 2 by a margin of 24 points which doesn’t account for the spread, which I believe ML was most likely favored. If we expected some prediction power from the rankings, ML would most likely still be favored by double digits against a team they lost by 3+TDs
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Ok. So going through this, and I know as the season goes on 2019 games are weighted heavier, but it seems many teams which beat higher seeded opponents would not only be underdogs, but still massive underdogs. Convoy Crestview DVII is a great example. A 60% Convoy lost to 37% by a margin of 19 while being near a 20pt favorite. The team they lost to then lost to a team in between their rankings. It would seem like there isn’t a smoothing process in the calculations. Team B upsets Team A. B loses to even team C while A beats underdog D. Team A stays higher rated rather than both B and A converging. Losing to team B should be an even larger detriment that it was initially, with the win against an underdog doesn’t tell us as much other than Team A is at least D’s lower level.
Hopefully that makes sense. The rankings you do are great, don’t get me wrong. I’d just like get a deeper understanding of how you handle these situations.
Thanks!
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Thanks for the feedback, Ken. And you’re right, as we get more and more games in 2019, we will have more data points and those data points will weigh heavier, reducing the impact of the preseason ratings. One thing these ratings do correct for games that look like upsets early that turn out not to be. After Week 1, Covington’s win over St. Henry looked like the upset of the century… then reality set in for both teams. As St. Henry continued to struggle, Covington’s rating was negatively impacted as well.
There is absolutely a delicate balance between underreacting to early season games and overreacting to early season games. It’s one aspect that I inspect constantly to see how early in a season we can start saying that a team is “for real” or if results at the tail ends the bell curve are just flukes.
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